Thursday, July 23, 2015

Vault-Co Knocks It Out Of Park Again

Our original essay on why the invasion of Taiwan would be the flashpoint for World War III was published 17 years ago back when Vault-Co was formerly known as TEXAS ARCANE'S SURVIVAL REPORT.

I had worked out the basic mechanics of the Klausewitzian game theory in my head as early as 1995 having only lived in Australia for three years.

A key point of my premise would be that in the showdown over Taiwan which would be a reactive naval blockade of the island, the single most attractive strategic move for China would be to reduce Australia to a radioactive glassed-over parking lot. The United States would react with furious condemnation and call it the greatest crime mankind had ever witnessed but the simple truth is that they would never retaliate. In one stroke, China would destroy their ability to use Australia as a staging area and fly sorties from there in an escalation. This would change the game dynamics. The United States would consider the repercussions of a full missile strike on the Western shore and the elimination of California, Washington and San Francisco and decide the cost was too high. Ideally they would then slink off and cede Taiwan to China knowing the price was too high to pay for a small island that really belonged to them anyway as the dominant world hegemon. If they instead proceeded to a war with China, Russia would enter under their mutual defense pact and the United States would be destroyed overnight. Try running the scenarios through your head a couple hundred times, you will always see the outcomes are fairly similar with the two important forks being America using common sense or ignoring common sense.

Either way, Australia will end up as a gigantic 3000 mile wide charcoal birdbath. The Australian refusal to maintain even a token nuclear reprisal sealed their doom decades ago. As in chess, frequently your stupidity only becomes obvious many moves later when you get checkmated. Australians enjoy the relative bliss of being too far left on the Bell Curve to ever become cognizant of any of their mistakes. Sometimes you cannot help but envy them the eternal sunshine of the spotless mind.

P.S. I was thinking about how hilarious it would be with me predicting doom for the entire planet for 20 years if it just turned out to be doom for Australia. Post-Apocalyptic down here but largely unscathed everywhere else for many years under a new global empire with China. You got to admit that would be pretty classic if I was to continue Vault-Co from shortwave broadcasts describing the endless onslaught of cannibal mutants and robots and the rest of the planet was just listening in front of their PCs eating Cheezits and pretzels. "I told you all ITZ COMING! Why didn't you listen when you had the chance! Got to go! Another attack on the vault door! I will resume my updates tomorrow at noon on this frequency! You'll never take me alive, you bastards! (Sounds of gunfire, mutant death squeals)


Grogard said...

It would be easy to wipe out australian population, though there is little point. It would be impossible to eliminate australia as a staging point, though. It's just too large to nuke every bit of it and they can build an airfield basically overnight anywhere in the world. Not to mention guam, taiwan, japan, manilla, and every other tiny island.

I don't think china will do anything because china is not really as together as you seem to think. Russia is another story but I don't think they will do anything big unless they are provoked in even more dumb ways than is currently the case. I would not be surprised by a scenario where they end up conquering europe if the combination of decline and delusional provocation keeps up, though. They'd probably be better off than they are now, which is rapisly heading into nonexistence.

Ave said...

>"You'll never take me alive, you bastards! (Sounds of gunfire, mutant death squeals)"

Actually, when the mutants squel, it sounds just like "release Vault-OS ! Release ! Releaaase... *argh* "

You know, maybe if they had had Vault-OS, they would have lived in a safe environment and not become mutants, but allies instead.

Nagging, beta-testing allies, but allies all the same.


August said...

Why would they nuke their own vacation land? And natural resources?
Especially over Taiwan. Australia is worth a lot more and the Australian are more co-operative.
Frankly, I think the Chinese could take Taiwan, and they would see little from America besides broadcasts of blowhard politicians. A recent similar case- Russia & Georgia. The U.S. only picks on the little guys.

Daniel said...

The point isnt that every inch of Australia gets nuked literally to glass. It is that China's moves render the cost of staging from Australia far too high. If Sidney goes up in smoke, that alone would probably be enough.

aeolipera said...

>P.S. I was thinking about how hilarious it would be with me predicting doom for the entire planet for 20 years if it just turned out to be doom for Australia.


Ron said...

And millions of enslaved drones around the world listening to those broadcasts will sigh and think to themselves "if only I had moved to Australia and built a vault before they nuked the place"

scipio afircanus said...


Not to be a smart arse, but if Australia is about to become a glowing glass parking lot, why are you living there? I would like to see you and your progeny survive.

Texas Arcane said...


The truth is I believe everywhere is about to become a glowing glass parking lot and where I live now is at the very edge of the parking lot.

standardtpage said...

Aren't chinese conquering Australia economically and by moving in? I read about richer chinese moving in.

I'm sure they are planning to use much more finesse means to disable harbors and military bases. Like applying for a job.

And was there a politician who said something like "We're chinese" in the 90s?