Tuesday, January 25, 2011

Ghost Cities In The Perfect Storm - China Next

There is an economic crash coming of such severity it will boggle the mind. It will be world historical in scope and of course, it will end in world war. It always does.


Anonymous said...

Yeah, China's construction bubble was mildly worrying back in 2008, but I still had no idea it was so serious.

You see, Hu Jin Tao said he can't sleep at night because he has to keep figuring out how to create another 2 million jobs before the end of the next month.

When you are that desparate to create jobs, you will fuel huge amount of loans through government-controlled banks into projects that do not have any demand from anybody. A job, in the end, is only as useful as what it produces. And a job without anything useful to produce is a misallocation of scarce resources. Unemployment would have been better.

Chinese banks have already been near bankrupt for a decade now, and they are asked by their government to keep throwing away money at purely notional interest rates. If only those Chinese tried an actual free market and settled for lower growth rates and more emphasis on producing what people actually need.

artforshow said...

Since it's not the masses deciding whether there will be war, but groups of elites who will continue to have everything they need, the war won't start over resources.

Since the ruling elites can let the starving masses starve on the streets, and can hide in their modern-made castles and cloud castles (excuse the metaphor), the predicted war won't be started to distract the masses who don't have what they want (food).

So where is the why of the war you see coming? The elites will remain warm and well-fed, well caviared they'll be, they know that's how it is. They know they don't need war, they know also not to start one, and how not to start, therefore there won't be all-out war. Some minor (sorry for those afflicted, not my fault) conflicts as before, but that's it, I'd say.

Texas Arcane said...

ArtforShow, do you believe the elites have such power they can break the ancient cycle of economic collapse followed by war?

Or, rather, are they just smart enough to have fostered these conditions knowing the result and that they will be well protected when it happens? Are they bright enough to know humans and know what the result will be of their engineering? The latter, I think.

Any human who tells you the world has seen an end to war does not understand the world or human beings.

Anonymous said...

Here's an interesting before and after photo showing the Pudong zone in Shanghai in 1990 and then in 2010. The growth rate shown might be called unsustainable.

Anonymous said...

This is too funny. So China is on the verge of an economic implosion as well?

All the nervous nellies have been saying, they were going to take over the world economy.

They said the same about Japan, way back in the 1980s, but once they caught up with the West, they started stagnating and still are.

Anonymous said...

Anon 6:09 is right that anti-Chinese alarmisms are ridiculous.

The Chinese are a cornered people, with missiles in various nations surrounding them, and friends only in dubious countries like Libya, North Korea, and some sub-Saharan African countries. Of course, anybody fighting the Chinese on their own soil will lose, but China is contained by force, hunted down, and squeezed.

Chinese currency actually has appreciated and America does devaluations far more than they do. Against China is a hate campaign of slander, because Western people don't consider Chinese people fit to live. When Chinese close their ports, their ports are bombed. When the Chinese embrace trade, they "steal jobs". When the Chinese don't handle crime, they are corrupt and shallow. When the Chinese handle crime, they abuse human rights, even though China has less people in prison than America.